125M-baht computer oracle sees flood future

It was one week before Halloween when the panic took hold. For weeks residents were told the capital would hold against surging floods, but conflicting messages from authorities created confusion and fear, made worse by empty store shelves and ominous rumors.

The new administration of Yingluck Shinawatra was reluctant to cede authority by declaring a full emergency. Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra suggested he’d keep the capital dry through sheer force of will.

Many in the capital remained unsure whether to flee or fortify until these forces seemed no longer evitable and flood fever peaked on Oct. 27, 2011.

“This is the first time I am using the term “evacuation,” the first time I’m really asking you to leave,” Sukhumbhand told the BBC.

Opinion polls gave low marks to the government’s handling as officials seemed preoccupied with squabbling.  Central government officials were slow to release information, including several false evacuation alarms and conflicting updates. Sukhumbhand told residents to ignore the central government and listen only to his office. Yingluck called for unity.

As factories and industrial estates succumbed, the economic toll was estimated to be almost USD46 billion by the World Bank. Faulting the same failures in communication, many companies were left apprehensive about doing business or investing in Thailand.

Today, as the floodwaters once again recede, a new forecast system hopes to satisfy those complaints and provide both a real-time look and seven day prediction of flooding in Thailand. Developed by Thailand and Japan, which depends on the productivity of its Thai factories, the system came online too late this season to have a measure of its effectiveness.

The Flood Risk Information system, paid for by the Japan International Cooperation Agency, went live in September after more than a year of development and cost of THB125 million. The flood forecast system, which aims to alleviate much of the apprehension felt by companies and investors, works by collecting different types of data relating to rain and terrain to predict just where all of that water will go and which areas of the Chao Phraya river basin are at risk.

First, information about topography was collected by airplanes flying over the country, bouncing lasers off the ground. This information is accurate to plus-or-minus 10 centimeters. In 2011 the JICA scanned all soaked areas, about 24,000 square kilometers. This information was coupled with satellite images to improve the accuracy of the analysis. This data of all the hills, valleys, mountains and gullies were then processed together with detailed models of how much rain falls where, and where it will go from there.

Combined, this information allows the system to create an easy-to-understand visual map predicting where water will be in the Chao Phraya River basin up to seven days in the future.

The information is available year-round and available to the public online in both Thai and English.

The website makes the flood forecast available in two ways. One is a visual graphic representing the waterway system marked by simple green-yellow-red indicators to show problem areas. 

The second uses a familiar Google Maps interface to view areas color-coded by the amount of flooding predicted for that area. It currently distinguishes flood levels above and below one meter.

Though a key use of the system is to help keep the public and business community informed of any potential flood threats it also serves as a tool for the government to plan where to best deploy sandbags and drainage pumps to best mitigate the impact that flooding will have on affected areas.

The real test of the system will come over time, not just for how accurately it predicts potential flooding, but also how useful it is to the general public and the business community. Even if it proves to be a digital crystal ball serving perfect predictions, it will matter little if nobody listens.



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